Tuesday, January 13, 2009

Best Wishes





The festive season comes to an end this week and people go back to work, school, and their businesses to start the New Year with hope and expectations.

Many of the greeting cards hanging in living rooms and offices offer Best Wishes for 2009 to the reader. Best Wishes seems to be the major motivator in many developing countries.

The fiscal budget that is developed in the last quarter of the year is largely based on best wishes and expectations for the following year. Our relationship with outside foreign partners is primarily focussed on best wishes thereby encouraging us to relegate our thinking and reasoning to the level where we expect to be working with ‘Donors’ and ‘Development Partners’ and generally take no responsibility for our own well being. The festive season further enchants the atmosphere of best wishes and benevolence when gifts are exchanged, food and drink are shared, and merry making is the order of the day. Students go into exam rooms to take their year-end finals with best wishes, but the successful ones are the students that studied and prepared for the exams.

We now enter 2009 with best wishes for the economy even in the face of a global economic recession.

It is refreshing to experience a deviation from the slumber of best wishes to the practical realities of assessment, analysis, planning and strategy. This new phenomenon propelled by the possible threat to Zambia’s economy due to the Economic Meltdown out there, may be just the kick start that Zambia needs to be pro active, strategic, and engaging with the events around the world.

The Government in collaboration with various private sector associations is assessing the possible impact on the Zambian economy, caused the recession in the global markets. Zambia’s 2009 resolution seems to be one that asks us to move away from the traditional best wishes scenario, to one that compels us to engage with the world on options, opportunities and counter measures that can be explored and implemented to reduce the negative effects of the impending recession.

The challenges include a detailed analysis of existing efforts to develop the economy. The Fifth National Development Plan (FNDP), the Financial Sector Development Program (FSDP), the Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF), the Private Sector Development Program (PSDP), and the Public Sector Reform Program( PSRP) are but a few of the ongoing efforts to profile Zambia into an investor’s haven. These initiatives have to be analysed for results and relevance in view of the evolving world economy. Zambia will not be spared, but pro active preparation, adjustment and strategy, will minimise the negative effects on the local economy.

A realistic approach must be taken in assessing what areas will be affected in the Zambian economy during the next two to three years. Already we note that copper prices have fallen. South Africa is experiencing a slump in tourism due to the fact that European tourists do not have the disposable income to fund expensive holidays in Africa. Investments in mining are likely to reduce as the cost of investment capital becomes more expensive. Grants and soft loans for the education and health sectors are likely to reduce and a larger burden of financing these sectors will have to fall on Government shoulders. The rains have come too heavy in some places and our food production may be compromised during the year. The chances for foreign food aid are less likely this year than in previous years, so we have to plan a new mitigation strategy for food security during 2009. The power crisis that has gripped Zambia for most of 2008 is still with us. Industry is expecting to demand more electrical power and we do not have the means to generate the much needed resource. There are threats of mass job losses in the mining industry. What are we going to do about the people that may be put out onto the streets of the Copperbelt? The price of oil is not likely to remain at below USD50 per barrel for much longer. How will we manage to procure oil based fuel stocks when the prices start to rise again?

Are we going to leave the energy crises as is, or are we going to continue to open up opportunities within Zambia? What will be the future for Maamba Collieries? How do we get the railway systems to take their rightful place as primary mover of goods and people across the country? What do we need to do to raise the standards of products made in Zambia so that they can sell in regional or international markets? How do we skill our people so that they can be gainfully employed and compensated either within the borders of Zambia, or in the region?

This daunting task can either be swept under the carpet and we can all wish and hope for the best, or we can work at it as best we can so that we can lessen the chances of our economy being completely undermined by events that we have no control over.

The group of associations in collaboration with various Government Ministries and agencies have some hard work ahead of them. We may not be able to influence the amount of money that will be employed in the 2009 budget, but we certainly can make recommendations and adjustments on how we use this money so that the country continues to prosper even in 2009. There is an opportunity that exists for a permanent dialogue between the Government and the private sector as a consequence of the global financial crisis. The ongoing dialogue will form part of a new strategic public private partnership that should become the bedrock of social and economic development planning for the country for decades to come.

2009 is the year to hang up our political boxing gloves, our selfish business demands, and our passing the buck habits. The entire nation and all the various civil society, private sector, and Government organs must rally together and shoulder the responsibility to support the country through the no doubt difficult years to come. Best wishes will simply not do this year.






Published 13th January, 2009